Douglas Triggs (doubt72) wrote,
Douglas Triggs

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On Polling

Well, if you simply give all the "swing" states to Bush, I predicted the election pretty closely. I might have lost Iowa and New Mexico there, though. Which is to say... Well, you can go look at the maps yourself, I don't plan on taking them down.

I'm surprised, though. Turnout, while very high for the Dems was more than equaled by the Republicans. I didn't expect that. Even with the independents going strongly Kerry... Well, you see what you see.

At least according to the exit polls. I think we can safely say that the exit polls were worthless (a paranoid person might even suggest that the fact that they were so far off might indicate that massive fraud was afoot. I don't think so, I think they were simply flawed. To be clear, I think there probably was some fraud -- there always is -- but not nearly enough to make that much of a difference). The other polls... Well, the vast majority overestimated Kerry's turnout... Actually, that's not true. The vast majority underestimated Bush's turnout. That's the real story. But they were largely within the MoE, so you can't actually say they were wrong (but when the MoE's greater than the difference in this election, it's hard to say what those polls were actually worth in the first place).

I think, though, that the days that polls could predict anything but a landslide are coming soon, if they aren't here already. But, on the other hand, they never were really here... Everyone still remembers what Dewey did to Truman.

That offense against oxygen, Karl Rove, was actually right.

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