Douglas Triggs (doubt72) wrote,
Douglas Triggs

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Final Election Prediction (10/31)

Well, here's my final official prediction for the election:

Kerry 325, Bush 213

Probable Kerry
Possible Kerry Pick-Ups

Arizona, Arkansas and West Virginia move to the Bush column, but all are really complete toss-ups (joining Colorado and Nevada as states which I think could easily go either way). The chicken entrails, tea leaves, and available poll data isn't really clearing anything up... I'm going with my gut at this point. The ranges remain the same (381 to 259 electoral votes for Kerry, 279 to 159 for Bush), but (as I said before), I expect it to fall somewhere in the middle. At this point, I think it's unlikely that Bush will win.

My popular vote prediction is still 50% Kerry, 49% Bush, 1% other.

Oh, and the Redskins lost today -- a bad omen for Bush.
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