November 3rd, 2004


On Anomymous Posters

To those who have been posting anonymously: I'm not going to unscreen your posts. It's not because they're annoying (as at least one person here might be thinking, but then I have to wonder why you even bothered. I'm sure that the -- at least one person, I'm guessing -- who wasn't trying to be annoying would probably just be confused as to why I didn't unscreen them). It's because you didn't identify yourselves. I have no idea who you might be (and possibly, if this is bizarro world, they all came from the same person).

I'm actually surprised that I've gotten a bunch of anonymous posts the last couple of days; I didn't think there was anyone lurking about. Obviously I was wrong.

But... While I'd prefer that you got your own LiveJournal account, in which case I'd friend you if I knew you (or even if I didn't and you seemed to be an interesting person), I don't require it. What I do want you to do is at least sign your name, and so far, nobody's done that. If you should feel the urge to repost with your name, I'll unscreen you. And maybe then delete the post if it annoys me sufficiently (you know who you are if you're reading this, most likely), but maybe not. More likely I'll just ignore it.
  • Current Music
    Jellyfish - Too Much, Too Little, Too Late

On Polling

Well, if you simply give all the "swing" states to Bush, I predicted the election pretty closely. I might have lost Iowa and New Mexico there, though. Which is to say... Well, you can go look at the maps yourself, I don't plan on taking them down.

I'm surprised, though. Turnout, while very high for the Dems was more than equaled by the Republicans. I didn't expect that. Even with the independents going strongly Kerry... Well, you see what you see.

At least according to the exit polls. I think we can safely say that the exit polls were worthless (a paranoid person might even suggest that the fact that they were so far off might indicate that massive fraud was afoot. I don't think so, I think they were simply flawed. To be clear, I think there probably was some fraud -- there always is -- but not nearly enough to make that much of a difference). The other polls... Well, the vast majority overestimated Kerry's turnout... Actually, that's not true. The vast majority underestimated Bush's turnout. That's the real story. But they were largely within the MoE, so you can't actually say they were wrong (but when the MoE's greater than the difference in this election, it's hard to say what those polls were actually worth in the first place).

I think, though, that the days that polls could predict anything but a landslide are coming soon, if they aren't here already. But, on the other hand, they never were really here... Everyone still remembers what Dewey did to Truman.

That offense against oxygen, Karl Rove, was actually right.
  • Current Music
    Peter Gabriel - Sledgehammer