October 29th, 2004

head shot

Election Prediction (10/29)

Well, here's my official prediction for the election (albeit open to revision):

Kerry 346, Bush 192

Probable Kerry
Possible Kerry Pick-Ups

This prediction is pretty much me taking my gut into account after reading the chicken entrails, tea leaves, and available poll data. Taking possible outliers into account, it could range anywhere from 381 to 259 electoral votes for Kerry and 279 to 159 electoral votes for Bush, but I don't think the extremes are particularly likely. Of the leaners, I think Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado and Nevada are pretty much toss-ups; the others are more likely to stay in the Kerry camp, and all the Bush leaners are reasonably likely to stay in the Bush camp.

Oh, and my popular vote prediction: 50% Kerry, 49% Bush, 1% other.
  • Current Music
    Tom Petty - Listen To Her Heart