October 21st, 2004

head shot

Election Update (10/20)

Just posted the latest update to the election page.

I've changed my methodology ever so slightly (I still use the same sources, but I have changed the logic to take into account how I expect "undecided" voters to fall when they go to the polls. It doesn't actually flip any states, though).

Despite what the "if the election were held today" map looks like, I would actually predict that Kerry would pull at least 293 electoral votes if the election were held today, and as many as 343. And that doesn't include Ohio, which I don't really believe.
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