October 7th, 2004


Election Update

Well, the maps have turned dramatically blue now that the first two debates have been completed (my opinion? Kerry won the first one, but the second would have been more or less a tie if not for the Cheney stumbles that only became apparent afterwards). The final shape of the map will be largely determined by the final two debates, but barring a major Kerry stumble, I'm guessing that it's likely that this will be close to the final outcome, as there's now less than a month remaining.

My outrageous predition remains, in fact I've made it even more slightly outrageous -- I'm still predicting landslide, as I have been for a month or more. As Zogby's written, it's still Kerry's election to lose. He still can -- nothing is certain until the votes are counted -- but as the time approaches, that seems less and less likely. Bush has been in a very, very uncomfortable spot for an incumbent (poll-wise) for some time now, and his predicament is becoming dire as the clock is starting to run out. He'd have to win virtually all the (statistically) tied states, and incumbents just don't win ties.

So, here's the election page.
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