September 3rd, 2004

head shot

Election predictions

As we near the presidential election, my fascination with polling data grows. I've always been fascinated with the election process, in fact I've written part of an election game that I intend to finish fairly soon now that I've got my Linux box back up and running.

At any rate, I have my predictions for the results:

Given current trends, I would predict that Kerry will win the electoral college 311 to 227. However, my actual prediction is that Kerry will win 376 to 162.

As a comparison, here are a few other current predictions that I'm aware of (mostly including the current RNC bounce):

Kerry 216, Bush 157, 165 undecided
Bush 270, Kerry 252, 36 tied
Kerry 282, Bush 256
Bush 274, Kerry 264
Kerry 280, Bush 258 (DEM bias)
Bush 284, Kerry 254 (GOP bias)

As for information content, I've ranked them roughly by the weight I'd give them, but at this point, anyone's guess is probably as good as mine. I may or may not make updated predictions as time passes, but I'll probably be watching the poll data closely nevertheless.
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