Douglas Triggs (doubt72) wrote,
Douglas Triggs
doubt72

  • Mood:
  • Music:

Election predictions

As we near the presidential election, my fascination with polling data grows. I've always been fascinated with the election process, in fact I've written part of an election game that I intend to finish fairly soon now that I've got my Linux box back up and running.

At any rate, I have my predictions for the results:

Given current trends, I would predict that Kerry will win the electoral college 311 to 227. However, my actual prediction is that Kerry will win 376 to 162.

As a comparison, here are a few other current predictions that I'm aware of (mostly including the current RNC bounce):

Kerry 216, Bush 157, 165 undecided
Bush 270, Kerry 252, 36 tied
Kerry 282, Bush 256
Bush 274, Kerry 264
Kerry 280, Bush 258 (DEM bias)
Bush 284, Kerry 254 (GOP bias)

As for information content, I've ranked them roughly by the weight I'd give them, but at this point, anyone's guess is probably as good as mine. I may or may not make updated predictions as time passes, but I'll probably be watching the poll data closely nevertheless.
Subscribe

  • New House

    So, uh, we have a new house. And I took pictures with the SLR for the first time in, what, two years? Have an HDR: (Click through the image for…

  • So Quiet...

    So, haven't posted here in a long, long time. Mostly because the game stuff has moved elsewhere ( here for one), and haven't done any photography…

  • That Thing About That One thing

    And it's done... It's actually been out for a couple days, but the last couple of evenings have been hectic; Tuesday there was a Muse concert and…

  • Post a new comment

    Error

    Anonymous comments are disabled in this journal

    default userpic

    Your reply will be screened

    Your IP address will be recorded 

  • 0 comments